Nexus

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$23.34

46.68 coins

Advertised RTP

89.99%

EV $21.00 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

71.01%

4,844 openings, odds method

Variance

137.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 408

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

99.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

300 openings · below min

7 days

66.06%±35.054,300 openings

30 days

71.01%±33.034,844 openings

since tracking started

71.01%±33.034,844 openings

-0.5%110.3%221.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	300	87.61%±132.7	—	odds
7d	4,300	66.06%±35.1	−1.3σ	odds
30d	4,844	71.01%±33.0	−1.1σ	odds
All	4,844	71.01%±33.0	−1.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,844 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Gungnir (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$9,355 18,710 coins	4.5%	0	0.5	—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 10,000	$7,714 15,428 coins	3.7%	0	0.5	—
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 6,667	$6,648 13,296 coins	4.7%	1	0.7	—
★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 5,000	$5,803 11,607 coins	5.5%	1	1.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 3,333	$5,754 11,508 coins	8.2%	2	1.5	1.38×
★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 2,000	$4,806 9,611 coins	11.4%	0	2.4	0.00×
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 2,000	$3,617 7,234 coins	8.6%	3	2.4	1.24×
Sticker \| Titan \| Katowice 2014sticker · high	1 in 1,667	$2,877 5,754 coins	8.2%	1	2.9	0.34×
★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 1,429	$2,844 5,688 coins	9.5%	2	3.4	0.59×
★ Driver Gloves \| Black Tie (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,429	$2,112 4,224 coins	7.0%	4	3.4	1.18×
★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 1,000	$1,358 2,716 coins	6.5%	4	4.8	0.83×
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 1,000	$1,138 2,277 coins	5.4%	5	4.8	1.03×
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 833	$1,024 2,049 coins	5.9%	6	5.8	1.03×
★ Skeleton Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · gold	1 in 833	$750 1,501 coins	4.3%	7	5.8	1.20×
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 571	$506 1,011 coins	4.2%	7	8.5	0.83×
Charm \| Lil' SAScharm · #4b69ff	99.0%	$0.50 1 coins	2.4%	4,801	4795.6	1.00×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire$23.3446.68 coins$6,64813,296 coins284.8x7d

★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$23.3446.68 coins$5,80311,607 coins248.6x6d

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl$23.3446.68 coins$5,75411,508 coins246.5x1d

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl$23.3446.68 coins$5,75411,508 coins246.5x6d

★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire$23.3446.68 coins$3,6177,234 coins155.0x18h

★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire$23.3446.68 coins$3,6177,234 coins155.0x6d

Sticker | Titan | Katowice 2014sticker · high$23.3446.68 coins$2,8775,754 coins123.3x6d

★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$23.3446.68 coins$2,8445,688 coins121.9x6d

★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$23.3446.68 coins$2,8445,688 coins121.9x8d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Charm | Lil' SAScharm · #4b69ff$23.3446.68 coins$0.501 coins0.02x53m

Charm | Lil' SAScharm · #4b69ffnigxoo$23.3446.68 coins$0.501 coins0.02x53m

Charm | Lil' SAScharm · #4b69ff$23.3446.68 coins$0.501 coins0.02x53m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$23.34	89.99%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.7%extraordinary 0.1%high 0.1%gold 0.1%#4b69ff 99.0%best hit $6,648 (284.8x)