Nexus Box
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$12.15
24.29 coins
Advertised RTP
89.97%
EV $10.93 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.61%
411 openings, odds method
Variance
0.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
24.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
52.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 411 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SG 553 | Ultraviolet (Factory New)weapon · Rare | 1 in 13 | $25.16 50.31 coins | 18.4% | 25 | 32.9 | 0.76× |
| USP-S | Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 13 | $22.86 45.72 coins | 16.7% | 24 | 32.9 | 0.73× |
| MAC-10 | Propaganda (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6 | 1 in 13 | $20.66 41.32 coins | 15.1% | 50 | 32.9 | 1.52× |
| MAG-7 | Chainmail (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 1 in 13 | $18.32 36.63 coins | 13.4% | 36 | 32.9 | 1.09× |
| USP-S | Overgrowth (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted | 1 in 13 | $17.02 34.04 coins | 12.5% | 38 | 32.9 | 1.16× |
| MP7 | Groundwater (Factory New)weapon · consumer | 1 in 13 | $13.66 27.32 coins | 10.0% | 33 | 32.9 | 1.00× |
| MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 13 | $8.35 16.7 coins | 6.1% | 30 | 32.9 | 0.91× |
| M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 13 | $7.55 15.09 coins | 5.5% | 28 | 32.9 | 0.85× |
| Sawed-Off | Sage Spray (Factory New)weapon | 1 in 13 | $3.01 6.01 coins | 2.2% | 31 | 32.9 | 0.94× |
| P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer | 28.0% | <$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 116 | 115.1 | 1.01× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.97%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $12.15 | 89.97% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedRare 8.0%covert 16.0%#d32ee6 8.0%industrial 8.0%restricted 8.0%consumer 36.0%classified 8.0%other 8.0%best hit —