NGA REFOND 10% ?

A case on Chicken.gg, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$77.82

156 coins

Advertised RTP

—

no catalog

Observed RTP, 30d

81.50%

238 openings, sample method

Variance

—

needs odds

Tail share

—

needs odds

Below price

—

needs odds

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

84 openings · below min

7 days

180 openings · below min

30 days

238 openings · below min

since tracking started

238 openings · below min

31.0%91.8%152.5%

Small sample. 238 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	84	91.64%±60.2	—	sample
7d	180	87.24%±40.3	—	sample
30d	238	81.50%±34.2	—	sample
All	238	81.50%±34.2	—	sample

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and valuesnone published

No catalogChicken.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$77.82156 coins$1,0102,020 coins12.98x2h

★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$77.82156 coins$1,0102,020 coins12.98x2h

★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$77.82156 coins$1,0102,020 coins12.98x5d

★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Rubycrazies$77.82156 coins$1,0102,020 coins12.98x8d

★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Rubycrazies$77.82156 coins$1,0102,020 coins12.98x8d

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · Covert · Ruby$77.82156 coins$8731,745 coins11.21x2h

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · Covert · Ruby$77.82156 coins$8731,745 coins11.21x2d

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · Covert · Ruby$77.82156 coins$8731,745 coins11.21x2d

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · Covert · Ruby$77.82156 coins$8731,745 coins11.21x4d

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · Covert · Rubycrazies$77.82156 coins$8731,745 coins11.21x8d

Latest dropsnewest first

SG 553 | Army Sheen (Factory New)weapon · consumer$77.82156 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x2h

SG 553 | Army Sheen (Factory New)weapon · consumer$77.82156 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x2h

SG 553 | Army Sheen (Factory New)weapon · consumer$77.82156 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x2h

SG 553 | Army Sheen (Factory New)weapon · consumer$77.82156 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x2h

SG 553 | Army Sheen (Factory New)weapon · consumer$77.82156 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x2h

SG 553 | Army Sheen (Factory New)weapon · consumercherrylea$77.82156 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x2h

★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert$77.82156 coins$495990 coins6.36x2h

SG 553 | Army Sheen (Factory New)weapon · consumer$77.82156 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x2h

SG 553 | Army Sheen (Factory New)weapon · consumer$77.82156 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x2h

SG 553 | Army Sheen (Factory New)weapon · consumer$77.82156 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x2h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, daily

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedbest hit $1,010 (12.98x)