Nice List
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$6.30
12.6 coins
Advertised RTP
89.98%
EV $5.67 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
87.81%
1,444 openings, odds method
Variance
8.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 34
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
84.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,444 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
★ Huntsman Knife | Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife$6.3012.6 coins$114229 coins18.14x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.98%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $6.30 | 89.98% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 1.6%covert knife 0.3%rare 0.5%Industrial Grade 24.5%red 0.5%mil spec 12.6%Rare 30.0%consumer 30.0%best hit —