Night Raid

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$5.73

11.46 coins

Advertised RTP

89.97%

EV $5.16 from 11 items

Observed RTP, 30d

104.48%

237 openings, odds method

Variance

2.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

11.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

78.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

106.27%±21.93233 openings

30 days

104.48%±21.74237 openings

since tracking started

104.48%±21.74237 openings

82.0%105.5%129.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	233	106.27%±21.9	+1.5σ	odds
30d	237	104.48%±21.7	+1.3σ	odds
All	237	104.48%±21.7	+1.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 237 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Shadow Daggers \| Scorched (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 100	$57.14 114 coins	11.1%	3	2.4	1.27×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$52.31 105 coins	10.1%	3	2.4	1.27×
FAMAS \| Afterimage (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$40.42 80.83 coins	7.8%	4	2.4	1.69×
MAC-10 \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 33	$23.04 46.07 coins	13.4%	11	7.1	1.55×
Five-SeveN \| Jungle (Factory New)weapon · Consumer Grade	1 in 20	$17.64 35.28 coins	17.1%	13	11.9	1.10×
P2000 \| Corticera (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 17	$11.19 22.37 coins	13.0%	14	14.2	0.98×
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 20	$9.27 18.53 coins	9.0%	8	11.9	0.68×
M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Factory New)weapon · restricted	12.0%	$3.61 7.22 coins	8.4%	30	28.4	1.05×
MAG-7 \| Praetorian (Factory New)weapon · restricted	12.0%	$2.70 5.39 coins	6.3%	26	28.4	0.91×
Glock-18 \| Vogue (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	12.0%	$1.59 3.18 coins	3.7%	23	28.4	0.81×
FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	42.0%	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.0%	102	99.5	1.02×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Factory New)weapon · restricted$5.7311.46 coins$3.617.22 coins0.63x1d

MAG-7 | Praetorian (Factory New)weapon · restricted$5.7311.46 coins$2.705.39 coins0.47x1d

FAMAS | Afterimage (Factory New)weapon · classified$5.7311.46 coins$40.4280.83 coins7.05x1d

FAMAS | Meow 36 (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$5.7311.46 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x1d

Glock-18 | Vogue (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary$5.7311.46 coins$1.593.18 coins0.28x1d

AWP | Containment Breach (Field-Tested)weapon · covertLingyz$5.7311.46 coins$52.31105 coins9.13x1d

FAMAS | Meow 36 (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$5.7311.46 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x1d

Five-SeveN | Jungle (Factory New)weapon · Consumer Grade$5.7311.46 coins$17.6435.28 coins3.08x1d

FAMAS | Meow 36 (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$5.7311.46 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x1d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.97%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$5.73	89.97%	11

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 2.0%classified 7.0%mil spec 3.0%Consumer Grade 5.0%red 5.0%restricted 24.0%Legendary 12.0%#4b69ff 42.0%best hit —