Nitro
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$41.64
83.27 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $37.47 from 11 items
Observed RTP, 30d
130.28%
66 openings, odds method
Variance
3.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 12
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
88.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 66 openings and 5.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 66 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$41.6483.27 coins$236472 coins5.67x
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2EliteLynx4233$41.6483.27 coins$267535 coins6.42x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $41.64 | 90.00% | 11 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 30.8%other 2.5%#8847ff 11.0%classified 11.0%restricted 20.0%pink 24.8%best hit —