No Scope
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$49.99
99.97 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $44.98 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
81.66%
90 openings, odds method
Variance
6.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.3%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
72.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 90 openings and 9.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 90 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Medusa (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 333 | $1,788 3,577 coins | 11.9% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| StatTrak™ AWP | BOOM (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified | 1 in 100 | $557 1,113 coins | 12.4% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| AWP | BOOM (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 33 | $259 519 coins | 17.3% | 2 | 2.7 | 0.74× |
| AWP | Doodle Lore (Factory New)weapon | 1 in 17 | $156 312 coins | 20.8% | 6 | 5.4 | 1.11× |
| AWP | Graphite (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 14 | $112 224 coins | 17.4% | 8 | 6.3 | 1.27× |
| AWP | Containment Breach (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 10.0% | $52.31 105 coins | 11.6% | 8 | 9.0 | 0.89× |
| SSG 08 | Detour (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec | 21.0% | $6.21 12.42 coins | 2.9% | 21 | 18.9 | 1.11× |
| SSG 08 | Bloodshot (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 21.7% | $5.43 10.86 coins | 2.6% | 20 | 19.5 | 1.02× |
| SCAR-20 | Storm (Factory New)weapon · Consumer Grade | 30.0% | $4.53 9.05 coins | 3.0% | 24 | 27.0 | 0.89× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
StatTrak™ AWP | BOOM (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified$49.9999.97 coins$5571,113 coins11.14x
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ AWP | BOOM (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified$49.9999.97 coins$5571,113 coins11.14x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $49.99 | 90.00% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 10.3%Classified 1.0%classified 31.7%other 6.0%mil spec 21.0%Consumer Grade 30.0%best hit $557 (11.14x)