NoKarambitPlz
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$5,252.86
10,506 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $4,727.57 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
65.67%
32 openings, odds method
Variance
4.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 12
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
83.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 32 openings and 2.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 32 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · covert | 1 in 200 | $112K 223,312 coins | 11.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| Sticker | Vox Eminor (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary | 1 in 50 | $36.5K 72,902 coins | 15.4% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| ★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Factory New)gloves · legendary | 1 in 50 | $36.3K 72,651 coins | 15.4% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| ★ Moto Gloves | Spearmint (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 25 | $11.7K 23,410 coins | 9.9% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · contraband | 1 in 25 | $10.9K 21,888 coins | 9.3% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.78× |
| AWP | Gungnir (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 25 | $9,355 18,710 coins | 7.9% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.78× |
| Sticker | 3DMAX (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable | 1 in 14 | $3,314 6,628 coins | 4.9% | 3 | 2.2 | 1.34× |
| ★ Sport Gloves | Arid (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 14 | $3,195 6,389 coins | 4.8% | 4 | 2.3 | 1.77× |
| ★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1 | 69.4% | $1,405 2,810 coins | 20.6% | 22 | 22.2 | 0.99× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Sticker | Vox Eminor (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary$5,25310,506 coins$36.5K72,902 coins6.94x
Sticker | Vox Eminor (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary$5,25310,506 coins$36.5K72,902 coins6.94x
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · contraband$5,25310,506 coins$10.9K21,888 coins2.08x
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · contraband$5,25310,506 coins$10.9K21,888 coins2.08x
Sticker | 3DMAX (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkableZen$5,25310,506 coins$3,3146,628 coins0.63x
Sticker | 3DMAX (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkableZen$5,25310,506 coins$3,3146,628 coins0.63x
Latest dropsnewest first
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1$5,25310,506 coins$1,4052,810 coins0.27x
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1$5,25310,506 coins$1,4052,810 coins0.27x
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1$5,25310,506 coins$1,4052,810 coins0.27x
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1$5,25310,506 coins$1,4052,810 coins0.27x
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1$5,25310,506 coins$1,4052,810 coins0.27x
Sticker | 3DMAX (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkableZen$5,25310,506 coins$3,3146,628 coins0.63x
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1$5,25310,506 coins$1,4052,810 coins0.27x
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1$5,25310,506 coins$1,4052,810 coins0.27x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $5,253 | 90.00% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 73.9%legendary 4.0%extraordinary 11.1%contraband 4.0%remarkable 7.0%best hit $36.5K (6.94x)