Nova
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$30.04
60.08 coins
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $27.03 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
65.36%
158 openings, odds method
Variance
11.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 25
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
93.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 158 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2 | 1 in 100 | $435 870 coins | 16.1% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| ★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 4 | 1 in 100 | $416 832 coins | 15.4% | 3 | 1.6 | 1.90× |
| ★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2 | 1 in 100 | $405 809 coins | 15.0% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.63× |
| ★ Hand Wraps | Giraffe (Factory New)gloves · legendary | 1 in 100 | $405 809 coins | 15.0% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.27× |
| ★ Stiletto Knife | Ultraviolet (Factory New)knife · Covert | 1 in 100 | $403 806 coins | 14.9% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| ★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1 | 1 in 100 | $389 779 coins | 14.4% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.63× |
| StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Emperor (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $250 500 coins | 9.3% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.63× |
| P2000 | Granite Marbleized (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial | 93.0% | <$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 150 | 146.9 | 1.02× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $30.04 | 89.99% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 5.0%legendary 1.0%Covert 1.0%industrial 93.0%best hit —