Nuke
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1,540.43
3,081 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $1,386.39 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
565.64%
12 openings, odds method
Variance
5.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
81.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 12 openings and 1.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · covert$1,5403,081 coins$41.2K82,490 coins26.77x
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · covert$1,5403,081 coins$41.2K82,490 coins26.77x
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald$1,5403,081 coins$7,89815,795 coins5.13x
★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black PearlSanityy$1,5403,081 coins$6,32112,641 coins4.10x
★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3$1,5403,081 coins$5521,105 coins0.36x
★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3$1,5403,081 coins$5521,105 coins0.36x
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · covert$1,5403,081 coins$41.2K82,490 coins26.77x
★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3$1,5403,081 coins$5521,105 coins0.36x
★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black PearlSanityy$1,5403,081 coins$6,32112,641 coins4.10x
★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3$1,5403,081 coins$5521,105 coins0.36x
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald$1,5403,081 coins$7,89815,795 coins5.13x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1,540 | 90.00% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 26.0%extraordinary 23.5%knifes 4.0%gold 10.0%industrial 36.5%best hit $41.2K (26.77x)