Ocean Drift
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$29.43
58.86 coins
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $26.48 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
62.08%
20 openings, odds method
Variance
5.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 18
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
84.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 20 openings and 1.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 20 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 40 | $304 607 coins | 28.7% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| StatTrak™ P2000 | Ocean Foam (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 1 in 33 | $252 504 coins | 28.5% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| P2000 | Ocean Foam (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $99.37 199 coins | 18.8% | 2 | 1.0 | 2.00× |
| Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $93.95 188 coins | 17.7% | 1 | 1.0 | 1.00× |
| Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 10.0% | $12.42 24.83 coins | 4.7% | 5 | 2.0 | 2.50× |
| MP7 | Ocean Foam (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 15.0% | $2.46 4.92 coins | 1.4% | 4 | 3.0 | 1.33× |
| MAC-10 | Oceanic (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff | 20.0% | $0.18 0.36 coins | 0.1% | 3 | 4.0 | 0.75× |
| P2000 | Oceanic (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec | 39.5% | $0.06 0.11 coins | 0.1% | 5 | 7.9 | 0.63× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $29.43 | 89.99% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 17.5%classified 8.0%restricted 15.0%#4b69ff 20.0%mil spec 39.5%best hit —