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Omen

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price
$3.26
6.52 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $2.93 from 14 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.48%
7,515 openings, odds method
Variance
85.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 190
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
99.1%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
727 openings · below min
7 days
87.48%±23.975,743 openings
30 days
88.48%±20.957,515 openings
since tracking started
88.48%±20.957,515 openings
63.0%140.0%217.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h727148.95%±67.4—odds
7d5,74387.48%±24.0−0.2σodds
30d7,51588.48%±21.0−0.1σodds
All7,51588.48%±21.0−0.1σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,515 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 11 in 20,000$1,265 2,529 coins2.2%00.4—
★ Butterfly Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 10,000$832 1,663 coins2.8%20.8—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert1 in 10,000$755 1,509 coins2.6%20.8—
Souvenir M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Covert1 in 5,000$556 1,113 coins3.8%11.50.67×
★ Bayonet | Night (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 5,000$540 1,081 coins3.7%11.50.67×
★ M9 Bayonet | Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 5,000$504 1,008 coins3.4%11.50.67×
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 31 in 2,500$348 696 coins4.7%43.01.33×
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Lore (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert1 in 1,000$338 677 coins11.5%47.50.53×
M4A4 | The Coalition (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 1,000$301 602 coins10.3%87.51.06×
Souvenir M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon1 in 500$235 470 coins16.0%1115.00.73×
★ Bayonet | Black Laminate (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 500$223 446 coins15.2%1415.00.93×
★ Bayonet | Stained (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 500$201 402 coins13.7%1915.01.26×
UMP-45 | Full Stop (Field-Tested)weapon · blue49.1%$0.50 1 coins8.4%3,7013688.01.00×
Sawed-Off | Amber Fade (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec50.0%$0.10 0.2 coins1.7%3,7473757.51.00×
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Butterfly Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · covert knife$3.266.52 coins$8321,663 coins255.1x
★ Butterfly Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · covert knifeleny444$3.266.52 coins$8321,663 coins255.1x
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$3.266.52 coins$7551,509 coins231.5x
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$3.266.52 coins$7551,509 coins231.5x
Souvenir M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · CovertTomex$3.266.52 coins$5561,113 coins170.7x
★ Bayonet | Night (Factory New)knife · covert$3.266.52 coins$5401,081 coins165.7x
★ M9 Bayonet | Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · covert$3.266.52 coins$5041,008 coins154.6x
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3$3.266.52 coins$348696 coins106.7x
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3$3.266.52 coins$348696 coins106.7x
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3$3.266.52 coins$348696 coins106.7x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
UMP-45 | Full Stop (Field-Tested)weapon · blue$3.266.52 coins$0.501 coins0.15x
Sawed-Off | Amber Fade (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec$3.266.52 coins$0.100.2 coins0.03x
Sawed-Off | Amber Fade (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec$3.266.52 coins$0.100.2 coins0.03x
Sawed-Off | Amber Fade (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec$3.266.52 coins$0.100.2 coins0.03x
UMP-45 | Full Stop (Field-Tested)weapon · blue$3.266.52 coins$0.501 coins0.15x
UMP-45 | Full Stop (Field-Tested)weapon · blue$3.266.52 coins$0.501 coins0.15x
UMP-45 | Full Stop (Field-Tested)weapon · blue$3.266.52 coins$0.501 coins0.15x
UMP-45 | Full Stop (Field-Tested)weapon · blueDavidRice$3.266.52 coins$0.501 coins0.15x
UMP-45 | Full Stop (Field-Tested)weapon · blue$3.266.52 coins$0.501 coins0.15x
UMP-45 | Full Stop (Field-Tested)weapon · blue$3.266.52 coins$0.501 coins0.15x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC$3.2690.00%14
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.7%covert knife 0.0%Covert 0.0%other 0.2%blue 49.1%milspec 50.0%best hit $832 (255.1x)