Overpass
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$36.03
72.06 coins
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $32.42 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
104.81%
331 openings, odds method
Variance
12.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 33
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 331 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Factory New)gloves · legendary | 1 in 400 | $1,505 3,010 coins | 11.6% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| ★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 400 | $956 1,912 coins | 7.4% | 2 | 0.8 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert | 1 in 400 | $800 1,600 coins | 6.2% | 2 | 0.8 | — |
| ★ Skeleton Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · gold | 1 in 400 | $750 1,501 coins | 5.8% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| ★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4 | 1 in 100 | $390 780 coins | 12.0% | 3 | 3.3 | 0.91× |
| ★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · gold · Phase 3 | 1 in 100 | $316 631 coins | 9.7% | 5 | 3.3 | 1.51× |
| ★ Classic Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 50 | $256 512 coins | 15.8% | 9 | 6.6 | 1.36× |
| Charm | Titeenium AWPcharm · Legendary | 1 in 50 | $226 451 coins | 13.9% | 7 | 6.6 | 1.06× |
| ★ Talon Knife | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)knife · Covert | 1 in 33 | $175 350 coins | 16.2% | 4 | 9.9 | 0.40× |
| Charm | Lil' SAScharm · #4b69ff | 90.0% | $0.50 1 coins | 1.4% | 298 | 297.9 | 1.00× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$36.0372.06 coins$8001,600 coins22.21x
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$36.0372.06 coins$8001,600 coins22.21x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $36.03 | 89.99% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 0.3%extraordinary 0.3%covert 3.3%gold 1.3%Legendary 2.0%Covert 3.0%#4b69ff 90.0%best hit $1,505 (41.77x)