Overpowered
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$81.33
163 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $73.20 from 16 items
Observed RTP, 30d
96.78%
704 openings, odds method
Variance
13.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 15
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 704 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$81.33163 coins$8,33816,675 coins102.5x
★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$81.33163 coins$1,5343,068 coins18.86x
Latest dropsnewest first
Galil AR | CAUTION! (Factory New)weapon · restrictedEliteRift1189$81.33163 coins$39.1778.34 coins0.48x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $81.33 | 90.00% | 16 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 12.0%legendary 1.0%covert 7.0%restricted 38.0%classified 28.0%#8847ff 14.0%best hit $8,338 (102.5x)