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A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$7.11
14.21 coins
Advertised RTP
89.95%
EV $6.39 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
97.89%
1,136 openings, odds method
Variance
11.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 27
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
88.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,136 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Nomad Knife | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 200 | $252 504 coins | 19.7% | 7 | 5.7 | 1.23× |
| ★ Ursus Knife | Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 80 | $113 227 coins | 22.2% | 16 | 14.2 | 1.13× |
| Souvenir Galil AR | Sage Spray (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · consumer | 1 in 50 | $65.10 130 coins | 20.4% | 23 | 22.7 | 1.01× |
| USP-S | Serum (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 33 | $42.01 84.01 coins | 19.7% | 39 | 34.1 | 1.14× |
| SG 553 | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare | 1 in 22 | $12.90 25.79 coins | 9.1% | 41 | 51.1 | 0.80× |
| FAMAS | Pulse (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 13 | $4.27 8.53 coins | 5.3% | 85 | 90.9 | 0.94× |
| UMP-45 | Metal Flowers (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff | 1 in 11 | $2.54 5.08 coins | 3.6% | 116 | 102.2 | 1.13× |
| P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer | 71.8% | <$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.1% | 809 | 815.1 | 0.99× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.95%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $7.11 | 89.95% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 1.8%consumer 73.8%classified 3.0%Rare 4.5%restricted 8.0%#4b69ff 9.0%best hit —