Oxide
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$0.77
1.53 coins
Advertised RTP
89.96%
EV $0.69 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
95.07%
6,186 openings, odds method
Variance
64.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 24
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,188 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MP5-SD | Oxide Oasis (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 2,000 | $247 493 coins | 17.9% | 5 | 3.1 | 1.62× |
| MP9 | Pandora's Box (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 2,000 | $90.84 182 coins | 6.6% | 2 | 3.1 | 0.65× |
| PP-Bizon | Rust Coat (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 100 | $16.13 32.26 coins | 23.4% | 53 | 61.9 | 0.86× |
| P90 | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 33 | $5.51 11.01 coins | 24.0% | 190 | 185.6 | 1.02× |
| UMP-45 | Delusion (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec | 15.0% | $0.92 1.83 coins | 19.9% | 916 | 928.2 | 0.99× |
| MP9 | Dart (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 10.0% | $0.51 1.01 coins | 7.3% | 620 | 618.8 | 1.00× |
| MP9 | Featherweight (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec | 35.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.5% | 2,096 | 2165.8 | 0.97× |
| MP9 | Black Sand (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec | 35.9% | <$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.3% | 2,306 | 2221.5 | 1.04× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.96%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.77 | 89.96% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 0.1%mil spec 11.1%covert 3.0%Mil Spec 15.0%milspec 70.9%best hit $247 (322.2x)