P2

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$53.60

107 coins

Advertised RTP

89.99%

EV $48.23 from 11 items

Observed RTP, 30d

81.50%

458 openings, odds method

Variance

10.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 25

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

82.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

8 openings · below min

7 days

83.49%±32.47392 openings

30 days

81.50%±30.04458 openings

since tracking started

81.50%±30.04458 openings

-0.5%151.3%303.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	8	75.09%±227.3	—	odds
7d	392	83.49%±32.5	−0.4σ	odds
30d	458	81.50%±30.0	−0.6σ	odds
All	458	81.50%±30.0	−0.6σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 458 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 50	$1,182 2,363 coins	49.0%	8	9.2	0.87×
Souvenir P250 \| Nuclear Threat (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Restricted	1 in 50	$376 752 coins	15.6%	9	9.2	0.98×
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Ocean Foam (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 50	$252 504 coins	10.4%	10	9.2	1.09×
P250 \| Modern Hunter (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 50	$152 304 coins	6.3%	5	9.2	0.55×
P250 \| Whiteout (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 50	$105 209 coins	4.3%	11	9.2	1.20×
P2000 \| Ocean Foam (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 50	$99.37 199 coins	4.1%	8	9.2	0.87×
Souvenir P250 \| Boreal Forest (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · consumer	1 in 50	$84.37 169 coins	3.5%	6	9.2	0.66×
P2000 \| Chainmail (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 50	$69.94 140 coins	2.9%	10	9.2	1.09×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Splash (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 50	$56.89 114 coins	2.4%	5	9.2	0.55×
P250 \| Digital Architect (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 50	$34.93 69.86 coins	1.4%	13	9.2	1.42×
P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	80.0%	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.0%	373	366.4	1.02×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted$53.60107 coins$1,1822,363 coins22.05x1d

Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted$53.60107 coins$1,1822,363 coins22.05x2d

Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted$53.60107 coins$1,1822,363 coins22.05x4d

Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted$53.60107 coins$1,1822,363 coins22.05x6d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ P2000 | Ocean Foam (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified$53.60107 coins$252504 coins4.70x5h

P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$53.60107 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x5h

P2000 | Chainmail (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$53.60107 coins$69.94140 coins1.30x5h

P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$53.60107 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x5h

P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$53.60107 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x1d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$53.60	89.99%	11

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedrestricted 6.0%Restricted 2.0%classified 4.0%milspec 2.0%mil spec 4.0%consumer 2.0%#4b69ff 80.0%best hit $1,182 (22.05x)