P250 Nuclear

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$2.14

4.27 coins

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $1.92 from 4 items

Observed RTP, 30d

84.29%

1,179 openings, odds method

Variance

6.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 14

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

93.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

47 openings · below min

7 days

83.09%±16.99868 openings

30 days

84.29%±14.581,179 openings

since tracking started

84.29%±14.581,179 openings

-0.5%65.5%131.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	47	57.90%±73.0	—	odds
7d	868	83.09%±17.0	−0.8σ	odds
30d	1,179	84.29%±14.6	−0.8σ	odds
All	1,179	84.29%±14.6	−0.8σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values4 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,179 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Souvenir P250 \| Nuclear Threat (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Restricted	1 in 10,000	$376 752 coins	2.0%	0	0.1	—
P250 \| Black & Tan (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 14	$15.96 31.92 coins	58.1%	79	82.5	0.96×
P250 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	40.0%	$1.91 3.82 coins	39.8%	449	471.6	0.95×
P250 \| Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer	53.0%	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.1%	651	624.8	1.04×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$2.144.27 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x2h

P250 | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$2.144.27 coins$1.913.82 coins0.89x2h

P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$2.144.27 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x2h

P250 | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$2.144.27 coins$1.913.82 coins0.89x2h

P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$2.144.27 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x2h

P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumeraxel02legmail$2.144.27 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x2h

P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$2.144.27 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x15h

P250 | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$2.144.27 coins$1.913.82 coins0.89x15h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$2.14	90.00%	4

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedRestricted 0.0%milspec 7.0%classified 40.0%consumer 53.0%best hit —