Palais
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$24.16
48.31 coins
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $21.74 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
76.93%
590 openings, odds method
Variance
39.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 100
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 590 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl | 1 in 200 | $1,935 3,870 coins | 44.5% | 2 | 3.0 | 0.68× |
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 200 | $700 1,401 coins | 16.1% | 3 | 3.0 | 1.02× |
| ★ Bloodhound Gloves | Snakebite (Factory New)gloves · Extraordinary | 1 in 200 | $430 860 coins | 9.9% | 3 | 3.0 | 1.02× |
| ★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · Phase 2 | 1 in 200 | $397 794 coins | 9.1% | 4 | 3.0 | 1.36× |
| ★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife | 1 in 100 | $150 300 coins | 6.9% | 3 | 5.9 | 0.51× |
| ★ Bowie Knife | Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 100 | $110 220 coins | 5.1% | 3 | 5.9 | 0.51× |
| ★ Classic Knife | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife | 1 in 100 | $85.21 170 coins | 3.9% | 9 | 5.9 | 1.53× |
| CZ75-Auto | Victoria (Factory New)weapon · #eb4b4b | 10.0% | $7.60 15.19 coins | 3.5% | 58 | 59.0 | 0.98× |
| PP-Bizon | Harvester (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff | 85.0% | $0.25 0.5 coins | 1.0% | 505 | 501.5 | 1.01× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$24.1648.31 coins$1,9353,870 coins80.10x
★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$24.1648.31 coins$1,9353,870 coins80.10x
★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covertiMadyyyy$24.1648.31 coins$7001,401 coins29.00x
★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covertjjurch$24.1648.31 coins$7001,401 coins29.00x
Latest dropsnewest first
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife$24.1648.31 coins$150300 coins6.22x
★ Classic Knife | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife$24.1648.31 coins$85.21170 coins3.53x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $24.16 | 89.99% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 2.0%Extraordinary 0.5%other 0.5%covert knife 2.0%#eb4b4b 10.0%#4b69ff 85.0%best hit $1,935 (80.10x)