Palm Fever

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$16.58

33.15 coins

Advertised RTP

89.98%

EV $14.91 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d

95.39%

61 openings, odds method

Variance

1.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

18.1%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

72.9%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

61 openings · below min

30 days

61 openings · below min

since tracking started

61 openings · below min

68.0%95.5%123.0%

Small sample. 61 openings and 11.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	61	95.39%±26.9	—	odds
30d	61	95.39%±26.9	—	odds
All	61	95.39%±26.9	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 61 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Head Shot (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$153 306 coins	1.0%	0	0.1	—
P250 \| Whiteout (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 500	$105 209 coins	1.4%	0	0.1	—
Tec-9 \| Terrace (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 56	$79.54 159 coins	9.6%	0	1.1	0.00×
Souvenir UMP-45 \| Fade (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · classified	1 in 50	$58.26 117 coins	7.8%	0	1.2	0.00×
★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Bronzed (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 20	$53.22 106 coins	17.8%	9	3.1	2.95×
Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 11	$31.27 62.54 coins	18.9%	2	5.5	0.36×
MAC-10 \| Propaganda (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 11	$20.66 41.32 coins	12.5%	4	5.5	0.73×
Dual Berettas \| Marina (Factory New)weapon · restricted	10.0%	$14.33 28.65 coins	9.6%	8	6.1	1.31×
SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	11.0%	$8.91 17.81 coins	6.6%	12	6.7	1.79×
XM1014 \| Blaze Orange (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	12.9%	$8.54 17.08 coins	7.4%	7	7.9	0.89×
Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	17.0%	$4.53 9.06 coins	5.2%	10	10.4	0.96×
Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	22.0%	$1.54 3.07 coins	2.3%	9	13.4	0.67×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Tec-9 | Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$16.5833.15 coins$1.543.07 coins0.09x2d

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Bronzed (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$16.5833.15 coins$53.22106 coins3.21x2d

Dual Berettas | Marina (Factory New)weapon · restricted$16.5833.15 coins$14.3328.65 coins0.86x2d

SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$16.5833.15 coins$8.9117.81 coins0.54x2d

Dual Berettas | Marina (Factory New)weapon · restricted$16.5833.15 coins$14.3328.65 coins0.86x2d

Dual Berettas | Marina (Factory New)weapon · restrictedVinnie2524$16.5833.15 coins$14.3328.65 coins0.86x2d

SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$16.5833.15 coins$8.9117.81 coins0.54x2d

Dual Berettas | Marina (Factory New)weapon · restricted$16.5833.15 coins$14.3328.65 coins0.86x2d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.98%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$16.58	89.98%	12

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 37.1%mil spec 14.9%classified 24.0%extraordinary 5.0%#d32ee6 9.0%restricted 10.0%best hit —