Party Box
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$685.13
1,370 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $616.61 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
64.11%
20 openings, odds method
Variance
4.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 13
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
79.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 20 openings and 1.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 20 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B · Sapphire | 1 in 100 | $9,483 18,967 coins | 15.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| ★ Driver Gloves | King Snake (Factory New)gloves · legendary | 1 in 100 | $8,979 17,957 coins | 14.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| ★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Field-Tested)gloves · legendary | 1 in 33 | $3,374 6,748 coins | 16.4% | 2 | 0.6 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby | 1 in 33 | $3,326 6,652 coins | 16.2% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · gold | 1 in 17 | $1,805 3,610 coins | 17.6% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 14 | $1,191 2,383 coins | 13.5% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.71× |
| M4A1-S | Atomic Alloy (Factory New)weapon · classified | 79.0% | $49.74 99.48 coins | 6.4% | 17 | 15.8 | 1.08× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Field-Tested)gloves · legendary$6851,370 coins$3,3746,748 coins4.92x
★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Field-Tested)gloves · legendary$6851,370 coins$3,3746,748 coins4.92x
Latest dropsnewest first
★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Field-Tested)gloves · legendary$6851,370 coins$3,3746,748 coins4.92x
M4A1-S | Atomic Alloy (Factory New)weapon · classifiedVinnie2524$6851,370 coins$49.7499.48 coins0.07x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $685 | 90.00% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed#EB4B4B 1.0%legendary 4.0%covert 10.0%gold 6.0%classified 79.0%best hit $3,374 (4.92x)