Party Fever
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$2.40
4.79 coins
Advertised RTP
87.93%
EV $2.11 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.55%
872 openings, odds method
Variance
0.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
30.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
40.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 872 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4A4 | Bullet Rain (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 1,000 | $37.64 75.28 coins | 1.8% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| Negev | Power Loader (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff | 29.9% | $3.66 7.31 coins | 51.9% | 264 | 260.7 | 1.01× |
| PP-Bizon | Chemical Green (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 30.0% | $3.04 6.08 coins | 43.3% | 274 | 261.6 | 1.05× |
| CZ75-Auto | Eco (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted | 1 in 20 | $0.55 1.09 coins | 1.3% | 45 | 43.6 | 1.03× |
| P250 | X-Ray (Minimal Wear)weapon · Restricted | 10.0% | $0.15 0.31 coins | 0.7% | 96 | 87.2 | 1.10× |
| MAC-10 | Candy Apple (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 10.0% | $0.13 0.25 coins | 0.6% | 71 | 87.2 | 0.81× |
| PP-Bizon | Candy Apple (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 10.0% | $0.07 0.15 coins | 0.4% | 90 | 87.2 | 1.03× |
| MAG-7 | Insomnia (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff | 1 in 20 | $0.01 0.03 coins | 0.0% | 31 | 43.6 | 0.71× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.93%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $2.40 | 87.93% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.1%#8847ff 29.9%industrial 50.0%restricted 5.0%Restricted 10.0%#4b69ff 5.0%best hit —