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pay for my stuff

A case on Chicken.gg, first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price
$125.00
250 coins
Advertised RTP
—
no catalog
Observed RTP, 30d
94.99%
48 openings, sample method
Variance
—
needs odds
Tail share
—
needs odds
Below price
—
needs odds

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
32 openings · below min
7 days
42 openings · below min
30 days
48 openings · below min
since tracking started
48 openings · below min
-0.5%102.5%205.5%

Small sample. 48 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h3292.33%±112.3—sample
7d4299.38%±101.3—sample
30d4894.99%±89.8—sample
All4894.99%±89.8—sample
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and valuesnone published

No catalogChicken.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Karambit | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert$125250 coins$2,0954,191 coins16.76x
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)StatTrak · knife · Covert · Phase 3rm20bk$125250 coins$1,5243,048 coins12.19x
M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$125250 coins$1,0062,012 coins8.05x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$125250 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$125250 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$125250 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$125250 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$125250 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$125250 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$125250 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$125250 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$125250 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$125250 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, daily

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedbest hit $2,095 (16.76x)