Payday
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$515.18
1,030 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $463.66 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
42.14%
24 openings, odds method
Variance
5.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.3%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
79.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 24 openings and 4.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 24 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert | 1 in 125 | $9,925 19,850 coins | 17.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| ★ Sport Gloves | Amphibious (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 40 | $4,806 9,611 coins | 25.9% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · covert | 17.0% | $1,266 2,533 coins | 46.4% | 3 | 4.1 | 0.74× |
| Souvenir AWP | Pit Viper (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Restricted | 15.9% | $75.06 150 coins | 2.6% | 4 | 3.8 | 1.05× |
| Souvenir M4A1-S | Master Piece (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Classified | 15.9% | $74.57 149 coins | 2.6% | 6 | 3.8 | 1.57× |
| AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · covert | 15.9% | $67.97 136 coins | 2.3% | 7 | 3.8 | 1.83× |
| AWP | Doodle Lore (Field-Tested)weapon | 15.9% | $49.51 99.01 coins | 1.7% | 3 | 3.8 | 0.78× |
| AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Factory New)weapon · covert | 15.9% | $39.19 78.38 coins | 1.3% | 1 | 3.8 | 0.26× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · covert$5151,030 coins$1,2662,533 coins2.46x
Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · covert$5151,030 coins$1,2662,533 coins2.46x
Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · covert$5151,030 coins$1,2662,533 coins2.46x
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir AWP | Pit Viper (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Restricted$5151,030 coins$75.06150 coins0.15x
Souvenir AWP | Pit Viper (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Restricted$5151,030 coins$75.06150 coins0.15x
Souvenir AWP | Pit Viper (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Restricted$5151,030 coins$75.06150 coins0.15x
Souvenir M4A1-S | Master Piece (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Classified$5151,030 coins$74.57149 coins0.14x
Souvenir M4A1-S | Master Piece (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Classifiedaxel02legmail$5151,030 coins$74.57149 coins0.14x
Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · covert$5151,030 coins$1,2662,533 coins2.46x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $515 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 49.7%extraordinary 2.5%Restricted 15.9%Classified 15.9%other 15.9%best hit $1,266 (2.46x)