Peasant Present

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$0.53

1.05 coins

Advertised RTP

89.29%

EV $0.47 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

73.53%

5,916 openings, odds method

Variance

95.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

13.1%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

78.9%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

64.66%±95.34405 openings

7 days

76.59%±28.244,616 openings

30 days

73.53%±24.955,916 openings

since tracking started

73.53%±24.955,916 openings

-0.5%80.0%160.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	405	64.66%±95.3	−0.5σ	odds
7d	4,616	76.59%±28.2	−0.9σ	odds
30d	5,916	73.53%±24.9	−1.2σ	odds
All	5,916	73.53%±24.9	−1.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,918 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New)StatTrak · knife	1 in 10,000	$329 658 coins	7.0%	0	0.6	—
SG 553 \| Hazard Pay (Factory New)weapon · Classified	1 in 5,000	$178 355 coins	7.6%	0	1.2	0.00×
Souvenir AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Legendary	1 in 5,000	$169 338 coins	7.2%	0	1.2	0.00×
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Urban Masked (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 2,857	$101 202 coins	7.6%	3	2.1	1.45×
Nova \| Forest Leaves (Factory New)weapon · Consumer Grade	1 in 20	$1.55 3.09 coins	16.5%	316	295.9	1.07×
XM1014 \| Scumbria (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 13	$0.62 1.24 coins	10.6%	460	473.4	0.97×
AWP \| Phobos (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 13	$0.53 1.06 coins	9.0%	442	473.4	0.93×
Charm \| Lil' SAScharm · #4b69ff	1 in 13	$0.50 1 coins	8.5%	502	473.4	1.06×
SCAR-20 \| Grotto (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 11	$0.29 0.58 coins	5.6%	532	532.6	1.00×
Sawed-Off \| Limelight (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 11	$0.25 0.5 coins	4.8%	500	532.6	0.94×
UMP-45 \| Grand Prix (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 11	$0.23 0.46 coins	4.4%	511	532.6	0.96×
R8 Revolver \| Banana Cannon (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 11	$0.21 0.42 coins	4.0%	571	532.6	1.07×
Glock-18 \| Winterized (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 11	$0.18 0.36 coins	3.5%	571	532.6	1.07×
PP-Bizon \| Space Cat (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 11	$0.16 0.32 coins	3.1%	526	532.6	0.99×
SCAR-20 \| Fragments (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 11	$0.03 0.06 coins	0.6%	528	532.6	0.99×
FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 13	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.1%	456	468.4	0.97×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Urban Masked (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$0.531.05 coins$101202 coins192.7x2d

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Urban Masked (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$0.531.05 coins$101202 coins192.7x5d

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Urban Masked (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covertpatriarch1337$0.531.05 coins$101202 coins192.7x6d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical$0.531.05 coins$0.210.42 coins0.40x28m

Nova | Forest Leaves (Factory New)weapon · Consumer Grade$0.531.05 coins$1.553.09 coins2.94x28m

SCAR-20 | Fragments (Field-Tested)weapon · blue$0.531.05 coins$0.030.06 coins0.06x28m

R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical$0.531.05 coins$0.210.42 coins0.40x28m

PP-Bizon | Space Cat (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical$0.531.05 coins$0.160.32 coins0.30x28m

FAMAS | Meow 36 (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$0.531.05 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.01x28m

R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon (Field-Tested)weapon · MythicalMoon1025$0.531.05 coins$0.210.42 coins0.40x28m

FAMAS | Meow 36 (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$0.531.05 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.01x29m

SCAR-20 | Fragments (Field-Tested)weapon · blue$0.531.05 coins$0.030.06 coins0.06x29m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.29%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$0.53	89.29%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedother 0.0%Classified 0.0%Legendary 0.0%covert 0.0%Consumer Grade 5.0%Rare 17.0%#8847ff 8.0%#4b69ff 15.9%restricted 9.0%violet 9.0%Mythical 18.0%milspec 9.0%blue 9.0%best hit $101 (192.7x)