Phantom Core
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$25.43
50.86 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $22.89 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
83.38%
314 openings, odds method
Variance
11.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 27
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
84.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 314 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl | 1 in 400 | $1,365 2,729 coins | 14.9% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife | Ultraviolet (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife | 1 in 200 | $620 1,241 coins | 13.6% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| ★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2 | 1 in 100 | $267 535 coins | 11.7% | 3 | 3.1 | 0.96× |
| ★ Ursus Knife | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)knife · gold | 1 in 50 | $125 250 coins | 10.9% | 10 | 6.3 | 1.59× |
| USP-S | Serum (Factory New)weapon · classified | 12.0% | $42.01 84.01 coins | 22.0% | 30 | 37.7 | 0.80× |
| SG 553 | Ultraviolet (Factory New)weapon · Rare | 15.0% | $25.16 50.31 coins | 16.5% | 47 | 47.1 | 1.00× |
| Galil AR | Chromatic Aberration (Factory New)weapon · classified | 25.0% | $5.99 11.97 coins | 6.5% | 88 | 78.5 | 1.12× |
| Nova | Moon in Libra (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 44.3% | $2.01 4.01 coins | 3.9% | 135 | 138.9 | 0.97× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl$25.4350.86 coins$1,3652,729 coins53.66x
Latest dropsnewest first
Galil AR | Chromatic Aberration (Factory New)weapon · classified$25.4350.86 coins$5.9911.97 coins0.24x
Galil AR | Chromatic Aberration (Factory New)weapon · classified$25.4350.86 coins$5.9911.97 coins0.24x
Galil AR | Chromatic Aberration (Factory New)weapon · classified$25.4350.86 coins$5.9911.97 coins0.24x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $25.43 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 1.3%covert knife 0.5%gold 2.0%classified 37.0%Rare 15.0%consumer 44.3%best hit $1,365 (53.66x)