Phantom Doppler

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$50.44

101 coins

Advertised RTP

89.99%

EV $45.39 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d

79.70%

1,271 openings, odds method

Variance

12.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 31

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

89.4%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

94 openings · below min

7 days

82.53%±20.791,109 openings

30 days

79.70%±19.421,271 openings

since tracking started

79.70%±19.421,271 openings

5.0%77.0%149.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	94	77.07%±71.4	—	odds
7d	1,109	82.53%±20.8	−0.7σ	odds
30d	1,271	79.70%±19.4	−1.0σ	odds
All	1,271	79.70%±19.4	−1.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,295 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 1,000	$3,592 7,183 coins	7.9%	0	1.3	0.00×
★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 1,000	$2,813 5,625 coins	6.2%	2	1.3	1.54×
Souvenir AWP \| Desert Hydra (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 500	$1,002 2,005 coins	4.4%	2	2.6	0.77×
SCAR-20 \| Splash Jam (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 143	$658 1,316 coins	10.1%	11	9.1	1.21×
M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$595 1,191 coins	13.1%	11	13.0	0.85×
Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 91	$462 923 coins	11.2%	9	14.2	0.63×
Desert Eagle \| Hand Cannon (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 77	$306 612 coins	8.8%	16	16.8	0.95×
Souvenir AUG \| Contractor (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade	1 in 67	$150 300 coins	5.0%	18	19.4	0.93×
M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 63	$106 212 coins	3.7%	22	20.7	1.06×
Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 33	$75.38 151 coins	5.0%	27	38.9	0.69×
Desert Eagle \| Midnight Storm (Factory New)weapon · industrial	40.0%	$18.01 36.01 coins	15.9%	527	518.0	1.02×
P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	49.4%	$8.01 16.02 coins	8.7%	650	639.7	1.02×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$50.44101 coins$2,8135,625 coins55.76x2d

Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · covert$50.44101 coins$1,0022,005 coins19.87x6d

SCAR-20 | Splash Jam (Factory New)weapon · classifiedYGSuie$50.44101 coins$6581,316 coins13.05x2d

SCAR-20 | Splash Jam (Factory New)weapon · classified$50.44101 coins$6581,316 coins13.05x2d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

P2000 | Fire Elemental (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$50.44101 coins$8.0116.02 coins0.16x2h

Desert Eagle | Midnight Storm (Factory New)weapon · industrial$50.44101 coins$18.0136.01 coins0.36x2h

Desert Eagle | Hand Cannon (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted$50.44101 coins$306612 coins6.06x2h

P2000 | Fire Elemental (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$50.44101 coins$8.0116.02 coins0.16x2h

Desert Eagle | Midnight Storm (Factory New)weapon · industrialalexpaz050$50.44101 coins$18.0136.01 coins0.36x2h

P2000 | Fire Elemental (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$50.44101 coins$8.0116.02 coins0.16x2h

Desert Eagle | Midnight Storm (Factory New)weapon · industrial$50.44101 coins$18.0136.01 coins0.36x2h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$50.44	89.99%	12

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 52.8%classified 3.3%rare 1.1%restricted 1.3%Consumer Grade 1.5%industrial 40.0%best hit $2,813 (55.76x)