Phase
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$0.29
0.57 coins
Advertised RTP
88.88%
EV $0.25 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
87.86%
4,013 openings, odds method
Variance
5.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 17
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
74.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,021 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P90 | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $5.51 11.01 coins | 21.7% | 45 | 40.2 | 1.12× |
| Nova | Moon in Libra (Factory New)weapon · consumer | 1 in 50 | $2.55 5.09 coins | 20.1% | 72 | 80.4 | 0.90× |
| CZ75-Auto | Pole Position (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff | 1 in 33 | $1.01 2.02 coins | 12.0% | 119 | 120.6 | 0.99× |
| SSG 08 | Spring Twilly (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 1 in 25 | $0.77 1.54 coins | 12.2% | 154 | 160.8 | 0.96× |
| Charm | Lil' SAScharm · #4b69ff | 1 in 20 | $0.50 1 coins | 9.9% | 196 | 201.1 | 0.97× |
| Nova | Army Sheen (Minimal Wear)weapon · gray | 11.0% | $0.34 0.68 coins | 14.8% | 411 | 442.3 | 0.93× |
| Glock-18 | Oxide Blaze (Factory New)weapon · Rare | 11.0% | $0.15 0.3 coins | 6.5% | 458 | 442.3 | 1.04× |
| Nova | Mandrel (Field-Tested)weapon · Common | 28.0% | $0.02 0.04 coins | 2.2% | 1,159 | 1125.9 | 1.03× |
| P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff | 35.0% | <$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.7% | 1,407 | 1407.3 | 1.00× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.88%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.28 | 88.88% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 1.0%consumer 2.0%#8847ff 3.0%Mil Spec Grade 4.0%#4b69ff 40.0%gray 11.0%Rare 11.0%Common 28.0%best hit —