Phoenix Doppler

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$29.75

59.5 coins

Advertised RTP

89.99%

EV $26.77 from 11 items

Observed RTP, 30d

84.02%

648 openings, odds method

Variance

14.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 50

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

90.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

56 openings · below min

7 days

89.06%±30.60600 openings

30 days

84.02%±29.45648 openings

since tracking started

84.02%±29.45648 openings

-0.5%61.3%123.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	56	22.14%±100.2	—	odds
7d	600	89.06%±30.6	−0.1σ	odds
30d	648	84.02%±29.4	−0.4σ	odds
All	648	84.02%±29.4	−0.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 648 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 100	$1,022 2,043 coins	38.2%	7	6.5	1.08×
★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife \| Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 100	$405 809 coins	15.1%	6	6.5	0.93×
★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife \| Boreal Forest (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 100	$296 592 coins	11.1%	5	6.5	0.77×
★ Bowie Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · #ffd700	1 in 100	$130 260 coins	4.9%	2	6.5	0.31×
★ Falchion Knife \| Stained (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 100	$124 248 coins	4.6%	7	6.5	1.08×
★ Stiletto Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 100	$114 227 coins	4.2%	2	6.5	0.31×
★ Ursus Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 100	$86.14 172 coins	3.2%	9	6.5	1.39×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 100	$78.85 158 coins	2.9%	3	6.5	0.46×
★ Survival Knife \| Night Stripe (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 100	$76.83 154 coins	2.9%	7	6.5	1.08×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold	1 in 100	$76.07 152 coins	2.8%	6	6.5	0.93×
AUG \| Random Access (Factory New)weapon · restricted	90.0%	$3.00 5.99 coins	10.1%	594	583.2	1.02×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$29.7559.5 coins$1,0222,043 coins34.34x2d

★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$29.7559.5 coins$1,0222,043 coins34.34x3d

★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · EmeraldHAL$29.7559.5 coins$1,0222,043 coins34.34x4d

★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$29.7559.5 coins$1,0222,043 coins34.34x5d

★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$29.7559.5 coins$1,0222,043 coins34.34x6d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AUG | Random Access (Factory New)weapon · restricted$29.7559.5 coins$3.005.99 coins0.10x8h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$29.75	89.99%	11

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 3.0%covert knife 5.0%#ffd700 1.0%gold 1.0%restricted 90.0%best hit $1,022 (34.34x)