Pistol Paradise
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$45.56
91.11 coins
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $41.00 from 18 items
Observed RTP, 30d
10.92%
6 openings, odds method
Variance
4.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 17
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
84.2%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 6 openings and 0.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Dual Berettas | Moon in Libra (Factory New)weapon · consumerRavtok$45.5691.11 coins$2.605.19 coins0.06x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $45.56 | 89.99% | 18 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedrestricted 7.1%rare 0.3%Restricted 0.5%covert 5.0%mil spec 6.0%industrial 9.0%classified 21.1%consumer 51.0%best hit —