Pistol Pop

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$3.59

7.17 coins

Advertised RTP

89.99%

EV $3.23 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

89.03%

11.3K openings, odds method

Variance

9.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 20

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

90.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

92.07%±17.681,125 openings

7 days

86.50%±6.787,646 openings

30 days

89.03%±5.5811.3K openings

since tracking started

89.03%±5.5811.3K openings

73.5%92.0%110.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,125	92.07%±17.7	+0.2σ	odds
7d	7,646	86.50%±6.78	−1.0σ	odds
30d	11.3K	89.03%±5.58	−0.3σ	odds
All	11.3K	89.03%±5.58	−0.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 11.3K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Souvenir USP-S \| Royal Blue (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · industrial	1 in 2,000	$250 500 coins	3.9%	10	5.7	1.77×
USP-S \| Orion (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$38.98 77.96 coins	12.1%	114	113.1	1.01×
USP-S \| Ancient Visions (Field-Tested)weapon · Restricted	1 in 100	$33.81 67.61 coins	10.5%	122	113.1	1.08×
USP-S \| Orion (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$33.60 67.19 coins	10.4%	101	113.1	0.89×
Glock-18 \| Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$32.01 64.02 coins	9.9%	99	113.1	0.88×
Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$31.27 62.54 coins	9.7%	124	113.1	1.10×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$29.87 59.74 coins	9.3%	81	113.1	0.72×
Tec-9 \| Decimator (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$28.89 57.77 coins	9.0%	107	113.1	0.95×
Glock-18 \| Night (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 100	$27.98 55.96 coins	8.7%	126	113.1	1.11×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$26.63 53.26 coins	8.3%	92	113.1	0.81×
P2000 \| Silver (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 100	$25.74 51.47 coins	8.0%	112	113.1	0.99×
P2000 \| Lifted Spirits (Field-Tested)weapon · 1	18.0%	$0.03 0.05 coins	0.1%	2,076	2033.9	1.02×
P250 \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	18.0%	$0.02 0.04 coins	0.1%	1,975	2033.9	0.97×
Glock-18 \| Winterized (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	18.0%	$0.01 0.03 coins	0.1%	2,063	2033.9	1.01×
Tec-9 \| Urban DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	18.0%	$0.01 0.02 coins	0.1%	2,058	2033.9	1.01×
P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	18.0%	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.0%	2,046	2033.9	1.01×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Souvenir USP-S | Royal Blue (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · industrial$3.597.17 coins$250500 coins69.74x1d

Souvenir USP-S | Royal Blue (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · industrialLingSAD$3.597.17 coins$250500 coins69.74x1d

Souvenir USP-S | Royal Blue (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · industrial$3.597.17 coins$250500 coins69.74x5d

Souvenir USP-S | Royal Blue (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · industrial$3.597.17 coins$250500 coins69.74x6d

Souvenir USP-S | Royal Blue (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · industrialmorasti$3.597.17 coins$250500 coins69.74x6d

Souvenir USP-S | Royal Blue (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · industrial$3.597.17 coins$250500 coins69.74x7d

Souvenir USP-S | Royal Blue (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · industrial$3.597.17 coins$250500 coins69.74x8d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Tec-9 | Urban DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$3.597.17 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x8m

P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerHazey00$3.597.17 coins$0.020.04 coins0.01x8m

Tec-9 | Urban DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$3.597.17 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x10m

P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$3.597.17 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x10m

USP-S | Ancient Visions (Field-Tested)weapon · RestrictedHazey00$3.597.17 coins$33.8167.61 coins9.43x10m

Glock-18 | Winterized (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare$3.597.17 coins$0.010.03 coins0.00x22m

USP-S | Orion (Factory New)weapon · classified$3.597.17 coins$38.9877.96 coins10.87x22m

P2000 | Lifted Spirits (Field-Tested)weapon · 1$3.597.17 coins$0.030.05 coins0.01x22m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$3.59	89.99%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed1 18.0%industrial 1.1%classified 4.0%Restricted 1.0%restricted 1.0%covert 2.0%mil spec 1.0%consumer 36.0%Rare 18.0%#4b69ff 18.0%best hit $250 (69.74x)