Platinum Knockoff
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1.13
2.25 coins
Advertised RTP
89.95%
EV $1.01 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
80.68%
2,957 openings, odds method
Variance
17.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 47
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
91.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,957 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Souvenir Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 1 in 1,000 | $73.24 146 coins | 7.2% | 2 | 3.0 | 0.68× |
| Souvenir Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon | 1 in 286 | $55.01 110 coins | 19.0% | 9 | 10.3 | 0.87× |
| P2000 | Silver (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 143 | $25.74 51.47 coins | 17.8% | 17 | 20.7 | 0.82× |
| MAG-7 | Silver (Factory New)weapon · #87c7ff | 1 in 100 | $11.21 22.41 coins | 11.1% | 28 | 29.6 | 0.95× |
| CZ75-Auto | Tread Plate (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff | 1 in 50 | $5.26 10.51 coins | 10.4% | 51 | 59.1 | 0.86× |
| CZ75-Auto | Silver (Factory New)weapon · light blue | 1 in 25 | $2.07 4.14 coins | 8.2% | 109 | 118.3 | 0.92× |
| Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 10.0% | $0.43 0.87 coins | 4.3% | 293 | 295.7 | 0.99× |
| XM1014 | Quicksilver (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 25.0% | $0.39 0.78 coins | 9.6% | 774 | 739.3 | 1.05× |
| Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec | 56.9% | $0.22 0.44 coins | 12.4% | 1,674 | 1681.1 | 1.00× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Souvenir Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$1.132.25 coins$73.24146 coins65.10x
Souvenir Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$1.132.25 coins$73.24146 coins65.10x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.95%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1.13 | 89.95% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedMil Spec Grade 0.1%other 0.4%mil spec 92.5%#87c7ff 1.0%#8847ff 2.0%light blue 4.0%best hit $73.24 (65.10x)