Plump
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$20.73
41.45 coins
Advertised RTP
90.01%
EV $18.65 from 24 items
Observed RTP, 30d
83.17%
555 openings, odds method
Variance
8.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 12
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
79.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values24 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 555 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.01%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $20.73 | 90.01% | 24 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 6.1%remarkable 0.0%classified 0.0%gold 0.0%Covert 0.0%covert knife 2.0%#ffd700 2.0%rare 2.0%restricted 2.0%other 2.0%extraordinary 2.0%Industrial Grade 2.0%consumer 26.5%industrial 26.5%#4b69ff 26.9%best hit —