Pool Party
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$4.56
9.12 coins
Advertised RTP
89.94%
EV $4.10 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
106.49%
396 openings, odds method
Variance
6.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 396 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Flip Knife | Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 200 | $139 279 coins | 17.0% | 2 | 2.0 | 1.01× |
| ★ Shadow Daggers | Bright Water (Factory New)knife · gold | 1 in 200 | $69.39 139 coins | 8.5% | 4 | 2.0 | 2.02× |
| M4A1-S | Decimator (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 25 | $24.60 49.19 coins | 24.0% | 25 | 15.8 | 1.58× |
| AK-47 | Blue Laminate (Factory New)weapon · Mythical | 1 in 20 | $9.52 19.03 coins | 11.6% | 19 | 19.8 | 0.96× |
| P90 | Blind Spot (Factory New)weapon · Mythical | 10.0% | $7.76 15.52 coins | 18.9% | 36 | 39.6 | 0.91× |
| Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 20.0% | $2.36 4.72 coins | 11.5% | 68 | 79.2 | 0.86× |
| Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 17.0% | $1.53 3.05 coins | 6.3% | 61 | 67.3 | 0.91× |
| SCAR-20 | Blueprint (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff | 43.0% | $0.21 0.42 coins | 2.2% | 181 | 170.3 | 1.06× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.94%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $4.56 | 89.94% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 17.5%gold 0.5%classified 24.0%Mythical 15.0%#4b69ff 43.0%best hit —