Pre Aim

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$12.69

25.37 coins

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $11.42 from 11 items

Observed RTP, 30d

88.94%

11.8K openings, odds method

Variance

42.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 125

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

92.3%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

80.11%±45.30791 openings

7 days

88.43%±12.809,916 openings

30 days

88.94%±11.7411.8K openings

since tracking started

88.94%±11.7411.8K openings

34.0%80.0%126.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	791	80.11%±45.3	−0.4σ	odds
7d	9,916	88.43%±12.8	−0.2σ	odds
30d	11.8K	88.94%±11.7	−0.2σ	odds
All	11.8K	88.94%±11.7	−0.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 11.8K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Souvenir AWP \| Desert Hydra (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 500	$1,266 2,533 coins	22.2%	20	23.6	0.85×
M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Factory New)weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 333	$758 1,515 coins	19.9%	35	35.3	0.99×
Souvenir M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Covert	1 in 333	$501 1,002 coins	13.2%	35	35.3	0.99×
Souvenir AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Restricted	1 in 333	$424 847 coins	11.1%	44	35.3	1.24×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Doodle Lore (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon	1 in 333	$361 722 coins	9.5%	32	35.3	0.91×
M4A4 \| The Coalition (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 333	$301 602 coins	7.9%	36	35.3	1.02×
Tec-9 \| Nuclear Threat (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 33	$30.12 60.24 coins	7.9%	386	353.4	1.09×
SG 553 \| Ultraviolet (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 33	$25.16 50.31 coins	6.6%	343	353.4	0.97×
P2000 \| Handgun (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	28.0%	$0.35 0.7 coins	0.9%	3,261	3298.7	0.99×
Tec-9 \| Phoenix Chalk (Field-Tested)weapon · Consumer Grade	30.0%	$0.20 0.4 coins	0.5%	3,531	3534.3	1.00×
SCAR-20 \| Poultrygeist (Factory New)weapon · blue	34.3%	$0.10 0.2 coins	0.3%	4,058	4040.9	1.00×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · covert$12.6925.37 coins$1,2662,533 coins99.84x1h

Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · covert$12.6925.37 coins$1,2662,533 coins99.84x2d

Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · covert$12.6925.37 coins$1,2662,533 coins99.84x3d

Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · covert$12.6925.37 coins$1,2662,533 coins99.84x5d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

P2000 | Handgun (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff$12.6925.37 coins$0.350.7 coins0.03x46m

Tec-9 | Phoenix Chalk (Field-Tested)weapon · Consumer Grade$12.6925.37 coins$0.200.4 coins0.02x46m

Tec-9 | Phoenix Chalk (Field-Tested)weapon · Consumer Gradereturn$12.6925.37 coins$0.200.4 coins0.02x46m

P2000 | Handgun (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff$12.6925.37 coins$0.350.7 coins0.03x46m

SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist (Factory New)weapon · blue$12.6925.37 coins$0.100.2 coins0.01x46m

Tec-9 | Phoenix Chalk (Field-Tested)weapon · Consumer Grade$12.6925.37 coins$0.200.4 coins0.02x46m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$12.69	90.00%	11

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.5%#eb4b4b 0.3%Covert 0.3%Restricted 0.3%other 0.3%#8847ff 31.0%Rare 3.0%Consumer Grade 30.0%blue 34.3%best hit $1,266 (99.84x)