Primal
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$12.83
25.65 coins
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $11.54 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
78.81%
131 openings, odds method
Variance
0.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
25.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
50.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 131 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dual Berettas | Cobra Strike (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $39.30 78.6 coins | 17.0% | 5 | 6.6 | 0.76× |
| M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Factory New)weapon · covert | 10.0% | $21.68 43.36 coins | 18.8% | 12 | 13.1 | 0.92× |
| USP-S | Overgrowth (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted | 10.0% | $17.02 34.04 coins | 14.7% | 9 | 13.1 | 0.69× |
| G3SG1 | New Roots (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 10.0% | $15.66 31.32 coins | 13.6% | 14 | 13.1 | 1.07× |
| XM1014 | Banana Leaf (Factory New)weapon · Industrial Grade | 15.0% | $15.43 30.85 coins | 20.0% | 16 | 19.6 | 0.81× |
| M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New)weapon · covert | 20.0% | $7.55 15.09 coins | 13.1% | 26 | 26.2 | 0.99× |
| P90 | Virus (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted | 30.0% | $1.06 2.12 coins | 2.8% | 49 | 39.3 | 1.25× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $12.83 | 89.99% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 5.0%covert 30.0%restricted 40.0%Mil Spec Grade 10.0%Industrial Grade 15.0%best hit —