Progressive

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$12.52

25.03 coins

Advertised RTP

89.98%

EV $11.26 from 15 items

Observed RTP, 30d

81.54%

6,140 openings, odds method

Variance

139.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 159

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

89.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

307 openings · below min

7 days

82.42%±32.115,198 openings

30 days

81.54%±29.546,140 openings

since tracking started

81.54%±29.546,140 openings

-0.5%94.3%189.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	307	56.35%±132.1	—	odds
7d	5,198	82.42%±32.1	−0.5σ	odds
30d	6,140	81.54%±29.5	−0.6σ	odds
All	6,140	81.54%±29.5	−0.6σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,140 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 10,000	$10.4K 20,866 coins	9.3%	0	0.6	—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 5,000	$5,754 11,508 coins	10.2%	1	1.2	0.81×
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 2,500	$2,643 5,286 coins	9.4%	2	2.5	0.81×
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 1,250	$1,024 2,049 coins	7.3%	8	4.9	1.63×
★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 625	$513 1,025 coins	7.3%	8	9.8	0.81×
★ Classic Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 313	$256 512 coins	7.3%	18	19.6	0.92×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 156	$129 258 coins	7.3%	41	39.3	1.04×
MAC-10 \| Case Hardened (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 78	$64.02 128 coins	7.3%	84	78.6	1.07×
Glock-18 \| Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 39	$32.01 64.02 coins	7.3%	159	157.2	1.01×
P90 \| Glacier Mesh (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 20	$16.06 32.11 coins	7.3%	311	314.4	0.99×
Charm \| Disco MACcharm · uncommon	10.2%	$8.00 16 coins	7.3%	638	628.7	1.01×
USP-S \| Blood Tiger (Factory New)weapon · Rare	19.0%	$4.00 8 coins	6.7%	1,163	1166.6	1.00×
Dual Berettas \| Moon in Libra (Field-Tested)weapon · #777777	19.0%	$2.01 4.01 coins	3.4%	1,165	1166.6	1.00×
G3SG1 \| Azure Zebra (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	19.0%	$1.01 2.02 coins	1.7%	1,182	1166.6	1.01×
UMP-45 \| Full Stop (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	22.5%	$0.50 1 coins	1.0%	1,360	1383.3	0.98×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl$12.5225.03 coins$5,75411,508 coins459.8x1d

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2$12.5225.03 coins$2,6435,286 coins211.2x1d

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2$12.5225.03 coins$2,6435,286 coins211.2x6d

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3$12.5225.03 coins$1,0242,049 coins81.85x3d

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3$12.5225.03 coins$1,0242,049 coins81.85x4d

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3RallyPo$12.5225.03 coins$1,0242,049 coins81.85x4d

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3$12.5225.03 coins$1,0242,049 coins81.85x5d

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3$12.5225.03 coins$1,0242,049 coins81.85x6d

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3$12.5225.03 coins$1,0242,049 coins81.85x7d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

UMP-45 | Full Stop (Field-Tested)weapon · blue$12.5225.03 coins$0.501 coins0.04x1h

USP-S | Blood Tiger (Factory New)weapon · Rare$12.5225.03 coins$4.008 coins0.32x1h

USP-S | Blood Tiger (Factory New)weapon · RareMoon1025$12.5225.03 coins$4.008 coins0.32x1h

UMP-45 | Full Stop (Field-Tested)weapon · blue$12.5225.03 coins$0.501 coins0.04x1h

Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted$12.5225.03 coins$32.0164.02 coins2.56x1h

USP-S | Blood Tiger (Factory New)weapon · Rare$12.5225.03 coins$4.008 coins0.32x1h

USP-S | Blood Tiger (Factory New)weapon · RareMoon1025$12.5225.03 coins$4.008 coins0.32x1h

Dual Berettas | Moon in Libra (Field-Tested)weapon · #777777$12.5225.03 coins$2.014.01 coins0.16x2h

USP-S | Blood Tiger (Factory New)weapon · Rare$12.5225.03 coins$4.008 coins0.32x2h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.98%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$12.52	89.98%	15

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 1.3%restricted 3.8%mil spec 24.1%uncommon 10.2%Rare 19.0%#777777 19.0%blue 22.5%best hit $5,754 (459.8x)