Prudent 15%

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$26.15

52.29 coins

Advertised RTP

89.99%

EV $23.53 from 15 items

Observed RTP, 30d

94.51%

2,578 openings, odds method

Variance

44.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 58

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

85.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

267 openings · below min

7 days

93.44%±26.752,370 openings

30 days

94.51%±25.652,578 openings

since tracking started

94.51%±25.652,578 openings

0.0%80.3%160.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	267	80.34%±79.7	—	odds
7d	2,370	93.44%±26.7	+0.3σ	odds
30d	2,578	94.51%±25.6	+0.3σ	odds
All	2,578	94.51%±25.6	+0.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,578 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · contraband	1 in 10,000	$10.9K 21,888 coins	4.7%	0	0.3	—
★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 10,000	$7,752 15,504 coins	3.3%	0	0.3	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$4,962 9,924 coins	2.1%	0	0.3	—
M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New)weapon · legendary	1 in 1,000	$1,757 3,515 coins	7.5%	4	2.6	1.55×
Negev \| Mjölnir (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$1,598 3,196 coins	6.8%	3	2.6	1.16×
★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 200	$544 1,087 coins	11.6%	14	12.9	1.09×
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · Phase 1	1 in 200	$500 1,000 coins	10.6%	17	12.9	1.32×
AUG \| Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 200	$290 579 coins	6.2%	11	12.9	0.85×
★ Classic Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 200	$256 512 coins	5.4%	15	12.9	1.16×
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 200	$246 491 coins	5.2%	14	12.9	1.09×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Player Two (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 100	$169 339 coins	7.2%	30	25.8	1.16×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 33	$119 238 coins	15.2%	95	77.3	1.23×
★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Bronzed (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 25	$53.22 106 coins	9.0%	100	103.1	0.97×
Tec-9 \| Decimator (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 23	$28.89 57.77 coins	5.2%	124	110.1	1.13×
FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	85.0%	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.0%	2,151	2191.3	0.98×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New)weapon · legendaryYGSuie$26.1552.29 coins$1,7573,515 coins67.21x9h

M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New)weapon · legendary$26.1552.29 coins$1,7573,515 coins67.21x1d

M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New)weapon · legendary$26.1552.29 coins$1,7573,515 coins67.21x2d

Negev | Mjölnir (Factory New)weapon · classified$26.1552.29 coins$1,5983,196 coins61.12x4d

Negev | Mjölnir (Factory New)weapon · classified$26.1552.29 coins$1,5983,196 coins61.12x6d

Negev | Mjölnir (Factory New)weapon · classifiedTMUBB$26.1552.29 coins$1,5983,196 coins61.12x7d

★ Sport Gloves | Amphibious (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$26.1552.29 coins$5441,087 coins20.79x9h

★ Sport Gloves | Amphibious (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$26.1552.29 coins$5441,087 coins20.79x1d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$26.1552.29 coins$119238 coins4.55x9h

FAMAS | Meow 36 (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$26.1552.29 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x9h

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Bronzed (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$26.1552.29 coins$53.22106 coins2.04x9h

FAMAS | Meow 36 (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$26.1552.29 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x9h

M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New)weapon · legendaryYGSuie$26.1552.29 coins$1,7573,515 coins67.21x9h

FAMAS | Meow 36 (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$26.1552.29 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x9h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$26.15	89.99%	15

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcontraband 0.0%covert 5.0%legendary 0.1%classified 4.4%extraordinary 4.5%other 0.5%mil spec 0.5%#4b69ff 85.0%best hit $1,757 (67.21x)