Prudent 30%

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$26.60

53.19 coins

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $23.94 from 15 items

Observed RTP, 30d

99.63%

1,168 openings, odds method

Variance

24.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 15

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

70.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

4 openings · below min

7 days

94.20%±34.12794 openings

30 days

99.63%±28.131,168 openings

since tracking started

99.63%±28.131,168 openings

-0.5%240.5%481.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	4	0.02%±480.7	—	odds
7d	794	94.20%±34.1	+0.2σ	odds
30d	1,168	99.63%±28.1	+0.7σ	odds
All	1,168	99.63%±28.1	+0.7σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,168 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 10,000	$9,900 19,800 coins	4.1%	0	0.1	—
★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 10,000	$5,803 11,607 coins	2.4%	0	0.1	—
Charm \| Baby Karat Tcharm · #eb4b4b	1 in 10,000	$3,485 6,970 coins	1.5%	1	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 10,000	$1,449 2,899 coins	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 400	$517 1,035 coins	5.4%	2	2.9	0.68×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 400	$493 986 coins	5.2%	2	2.9	0.68×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Overgrowth (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 50	$168 335 coins	14.0%	44	23.4	1.88×
★ Flip Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 50	$125 251 coins	10.5%	21	23.4	0.90×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 50	$122 244 coins	10.2%	24	23.4	1.03×
Glock-18 \| Brass (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 33	$59.39 119 coins	7.4%	43	35.0	1.23×
★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Yellow-banded (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 20	$53.72 107 coins	11.2%	58	58.4	0.99×
M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 20	$50.58 101 coins	10.6%	51	58.4	0.87×
Souvenir Glock-18 \| Groundwater (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade	1 in 20	$50.13 100 coins	10.5%	50	58.4	0.86×
Charm \| Lil' Avacharm · uncommon	1 in 18	$28.13 56.25 coins	6.4%	62	63.8	0.97×
G3SG1 \| VariCamo (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	70.0%	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.0%	810	817.6	0.99×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Charm | Baby Karat Tcharm · #eb4b4b$26.6053.19 coins$3,4856,970 coins131.0x8d

★ Bayonet | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert$26.6053.19 coins$5171,035 coins19.46x4d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

G3SG1 | VariCamo (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial$26.6053.19 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x21h

G3SG1 | VariCamo (Field-Tested)weapon · industrialKocvreKK$26.6053.19 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x21h

G3SG1 | VariCamo (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial$26.6053.19 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x1d

StatTrak™ USP-S | Overgrowth (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted$26.6053.19 coins$168335 coins6.30x1d

Glock-18 | Brass (Factory New)weapon · restricted$26.6053.19 coins$59.39119 coins2.23x1d

G3SG1 | VariCamo (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial$26.6053.19 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x1d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$26.60	90.00%	15

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 9.5%#eb4b4b 0.0%Restricted 2.0%restricted 3.0%extraordinary 5.0%Industrial Grade 5.0%uncommon 5.5%industrial 70.0%best hit $3,485 (131.0x)