Pumpkins
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$9.17
18.34 coins
Advertised RTP
89.98%
EV $8.25 from 11 items
Observed RTP, 30d
100.21%
371 openings, odds method
Variance
1.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
17.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
75.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 371 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
AK-47 | Safety Net (Factory New)weapon · restrictedEliteLynx4233$9.1718.34 coins$6.2712.54 coins0.68x
Glock-18 | Royal Legion (Factory New)weapon · restrictedEliteLynx4233$9.1718.34 coins$4.078.13 coins0.44x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.98%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $9.17 | 89.98% | 11 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 10.0%covert 3.0%restricted 38.0%Mil Spec Grade 4.0%Rare 5.0%mil spec 10.0%Mythical 15.0%#4b69ff 15.0%best hit —