Purple Reign

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$3.58

7.16 coins

Advertised RTP

89.94%

EV $3.22 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

82.83%

4,581 openings, odds method

Variance

32.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 57

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

86.3%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

69.28%±61.18330 openings

7 days

80.88%±18.623,561 openings

30 days

82.83%±16.424,581 openings

since tracking started

82.83%±16.424,581 openings

7.5%69.3%131.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	330	69.28%±61.2	−0.7σ	odds
7d	3,561	80.88%±18.6	−1.0σ	odds
30d	4,581	82.83%±16.4	−0.8σ	odds
All	4,581	82.83%±16.4	−0.8σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,581 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Driver Gloves \| Imperial Plaid (Factory New)gloves · legendary	1 in 33,333	$1,385 2,771 coins	1.3%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 20,000	$1,227 2,453 coins	1.9%	0	0.2	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Freehand (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$774 1,549 coins	2.4%	0	0.5	—
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · Phase 1	1 in 8,000	$519 1,037 coins	2.0%	0	0.6	—
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Ultraviolet (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · Covert	1 in 3,333	$375 749 coins	3.5%	1	1.4	0.73×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 1,250	$236 472 coins	5.9%	3	3.7	0.82×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Ultraviolet (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 1,000	$172 345 coins	5.4%	2	4.6	0.44×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Freehand (Factory New)knife · Immortal	1 in 200	$84.04 168 coins	13.0%	27	22.9	1.18×
★ Navaja Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 100	$61.31 123 coins	19.0%	51	45.8	1.11×
USP-S \| Purple DDPAT (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 33	$10.36 20.72 coins	9.7%	127	137.4	0.92×
P250 \| Vino Primo (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 33	$6.15 12.3 coins	5.7%	149	137.4	1.08×
CZ75-Auto \| Xiangliu (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 33	$6.11 12.21 coins	5.7%	136	137.4	0.99×
G3SG1 \| Flux (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 33	$4.78 9.55 coins	4.4%	155	137.4	1.13×
Nova \| Moon in Libra (Factory New)weapon · consumer	1 in 33	$2.55 5.09 coins	2.4%	138	137.4	1.00×
Dual Berettas \| Moon in Libra (Field-Tested)weapon · #777777	1 in 33	$2.01 4.01 coins	1.9%	145	137.4	1.06×
UMP-45 \| Moonrise (Factory New)weapon · restricted	80.3%	$0.64 1.27 coins	15.8%	3,647	3676.7	0.99×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Ultraviolet (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · Covert$3.587.16 coins$375749 coins104.7x6d

★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$3.587.16 coins$236472 coins65.93x5d

★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2titteszkiraly2$3.587.16 coins$236472 coins65.93x7d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

UMP-45 | Moonrise (Factory New)weapon · restricted$3.587.16 coins$0.641.27 coins0.18x3m

Dual Berettas | Moon in Libra (Field-Tested)weapon · #777777$3.587.16 coins$2.014.01 coins0.56x3m

UMP-45 | Moonrise (Factory New)weapon · restricted$3.587.16 coins$0.641.27 coins0.18x3m

CZ75-Auto | Xiangliu (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$3.587.16 coins$6.1112.21 coins1.71x3m

UMP-45 | Moonrise (Factory New)weapon · restricted$3.587.16 coins$0.641.27 coins0.18x3m

UMP-45 | Moonrise (Factory New)weapon · restrictedDavidRice$3.587.16 coins$0.641.27 coins0.18x3m

UMP-45 | Moonrise (Factory New)weapon · restricted$3.587.16 coins$0.641.27 coins0.18x5m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.94%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$3.58	89.94%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 0.0%covert 1.2%other 0.0%Covert 0.0%Immortal 0.5%mil spec 3.0%violet 3.0%classified 3.0%#d32ee6 3.0%consumer 3.0%#777777 3.0%restricted 80.3%best hit $375 (104.7x)