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A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$47.09
94.18 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $42.38 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
125.84%
3,054 openings, odds method
Variance
121.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 333
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
99.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,054 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · legendary | 1 in 1,000 | $7,754 15,508 coins | 18.3% | 5 | 3.1 | 1.64× |
| ★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire | 1 in 1,000 | $7,752 15,504 coins | 18.3% | 4 | 3.1 | 1.31× |
| Sticker | LUCAS1 (Gold) | Boston 2018sticker | 1 in 1,000 | $7,441 14,883 coins | 17.6% | 5 | 3.1 | 1.64× |
| Sticker | s1mple (Gold) | Krakow 2017sticker · Extraordinary | 1 in 1,000 | $6,930 13,859 coins | 16.4% | 4 | 3.1 | 1.31× |
| ★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · #ffd700 | 1 in 1,000 | $6,234 12,468 coins | 14.7% | 3 | 3.1 | 0.98× |
| ★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert | 1 in 200 | $1,252 2,504 coins | 14.8% | 22 | 15.3 | 1.44× |
| SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff | 49.0% | $0.01 0.03 coins | 0.0% | 1,469 | 1496.5 | 0.98× |
| P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff | 50.0% | <$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 1,542 | 1527.0 | 1.01× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · legendary$47.0994.18 coins$7,75415,508 coins164.7x
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · legendary$47.0994.18 coins$7,75415,508 coins164.7x
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · legendary$47.0994.18 coins$7,75415,508 coins164.7x
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · legendary$47.0994.18 coins$7,75415,508 coins164.7x
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · legendary$47.0994.18 coins$7,75415,508 coins164.7x
★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$47.0994.18 coins$7,75215,504 coins164.6x
★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$47.0994.18 coins$7,75215,504 coins164.6x
★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$47.0994.18 coins$7,75215,504 coins164.6x
★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$47.0994.18 coins$7,75215,504 coins164.6x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $47.09 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 0.1%covert 0.6%other 0.1%Extraordinary 0.1%#ffd700 0.1%#4b69ff 99.0%best hit $7,754 (164.7x)