Quantum
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$2.81
5.62 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $2.53 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.58%
912 openings, odds method
Variance
2.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
25.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
75.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 912 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-47 | The Empress (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $19.94 39.87 coins | 7.9% | 12 | 9.1 | 1.32× |
| Sawed-Off | First Class (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 1 in 100 | $19.78 39.56 coins | 7.8% | 9 | 9.1 | 0.99× |
| M4A4 | The Coalition (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient | 1 in 100 | $19.47 38.94 coins | 7.7% | 8 | 9.1 | 0.88× |
| CZ75-Auto | Emerald (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 100 | $19.18 38.36 coins | 7.6% | 10 | 9.1 | 1.10× |
| USP-S | Pathfinder (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 1 in 100 | $18.06 36.11 coins | 7.1% | 9 | 9.1 | 0.99× |
| Five-SeveN | Jungle (Factory New)weapon · Consumer Grade | 1 in 100 | $17.64 35.28 coins | 7.0% | 9 | 9.1 | 0.99× |
| Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 19.0% | $4.53 9.06 coins | 34.0% | 157 | 173.3 | 0.91× |
| XM1014 | Entombed (Field-Tested)weapon · pink | 19.0% | $1.56 3.12 coins | 11.7% | 186 | 173.3 | 1.07× |
| AK-47 | Elite Build (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare | 19.0% | $0.56 1.11 coins | 4.2% | 159 | 173.3 | 0.92× |
| P90 | Off World (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 37.0% | $0.34 0.68 coins | 5.0% | 353 | 337.4 | 1.05× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $2.81 | 90.00% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 20.0%Mil Spec Grade 1.0%Ancient 1.0%mil spec 38.0%industrial 1.0%Consumer Grade 1.0%pink 19.0%Rare 19.0%best hit —