Queen Gambit
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$2.59
5.18 coins
Advertised RTP
89.97%
EV $2.33 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
95.73%
5,304 openings, odds method
Variance
22.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 100
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,304 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $119 238 coins | 51.0% | 58 | 53.0 | 1.09× |
| Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $31.27 62.54 coins | 13.4% | 56 | 53.0 | 1.06× |
| Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 33 | $4.53 9.06 coins | 5.8% | 170 | 159.1 | 1.07× |
| UMP-45 | Metal Flowers (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff | 15.0% | $2.54 5.08 coins | 16.3% | 812 | 795.6 | 1.02× |
| Sawed-Off | Wasteland Princess (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $1.07 2.14 coins | 4.6% | 538 | 530.4 | 1.01× |
| Dual Berettas | Melondrama (Field-Tested)weapon · pink | 18.0% | $0.71 1.43 coins | 5.5% | 986 | 954.7 | 1.03× |
| P90 | Neoqueen (Field-Tested)weapon · violet | 24.0% | $0.21 0.42 coins | 2.2% | 1,212 | 1273.0 | 0.95× |
| Glock-18 | Sacrifice (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec | 28.0% | $0.09 0.18 coins | 1.1% | 1,472 | 1485.1 | 0.99× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.97%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $2.59 | 89.97% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 5.0%#4b69ff 15.0%classified 10.0%pink 18.0%violet 24.0%mil spec 28.0%best hit —