Radial
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$3.63
7.25 coins
Advertised RTP
89.89%
EV $3.26 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.38%
919 openings, odds method
Variance
0.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
33.3%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
58.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 919 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Dual Berettas | Moon in Libra (Field-Tested)weapon · #777777StormNomad3446$3.637.25 coins$2.014.01 coins0.55x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.89%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $3.63 | 89.89% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 8.3%covert 8.3%mil spec 25.0%Consumer Grade 8.3%Rare 8.3%#4b69ff 8.3%other 8.3%#777777 16.7%blue 8.4%best hit —