Rainbow
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$9.09
18.18 coins
Advertised RTP
89.95%
EV $8.18 from 16 items
Observed RTP, 30d
83.14%
1,930 openings, odds method
Variance
15.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 33
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
86.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,936 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · RubyEliteLynx4233$9.0918.18 coins$493986 coins54.26x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.95%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $9.09 | 89.95% | 16 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedCovert 0.0%covert 16.4%extraordinary 0.1%classified 1.1%mil spec 1.0%restricted 8.0%industrial 6.0%blue 67.5%best hit $493 (54.26x)