Raw

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$178.13

356 coins

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $160.31 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

112.57%

180 openings, odds method

Variance

3.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 11

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

75.9%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

112.57%±27.33180 openings

30 days

112.57%±27.33180 openings

since tracking started

112.57%±27.33180 openings

84.5%112.5%140.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	180	112.57%±27.3	+1.6σ	odds
30d	180	112.57%±27.3	+1.6σ	odds
All	180	112.57%±27.3	+1.6σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 180 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · contraband	1 in 100,000	$10.9K 21,888 coins	0.1%	0	0.0	—
Sticker \| Reason Gaming \| Katowice 2014sticker · high	1 in 1,000	$3,097 6,194 coins	1.9%	0	0.2	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Autotronic (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 200	$1,750 3,500 coins	5.5%	2	0.9	—
★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B · Ruby	1 in 100	$1,543 3,086 coins	9.6%	2	1.8	1.11×
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 80	$1,129 2,258 coins	8.8%	1	2.3	0.44×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 80	$1,080 2,161 coins	8.4%	3	2.3	1.33×
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B · Phase 1	1 in 80	$1,035 2,071 coins	8.1%	1	2.3	0.44×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 80	$949 1,897 coins	7.4%	7	2.3	3.11×
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · Covert · Ruby	1 in 40	$607 1,215 coins	9.5%	7	4.5	1.56×
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 40	$558 1,117 coins	8.7%	4	4.5	0.89×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Night (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 40	$527 1,055 coins	8.2%	3	4.5	0.67×
AUG \| Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 20	$290 579 coins	9.0%	12	9.0	1.33×
★ Ursus Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 20	$253 506 coins	7.9%	16	9.0	1.78×
M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Factory New)weapon · covert	15.0%	$37.64 75.28 coins	3.5%	29	27.0	1.07×
MAC-10 \| Propaganda (Factory New)weapon · classified	15.0%	$27.81 55.62 coins	2.6%	21	27.0	0.78×
MP7 \| Bloodsport (Factory New)weapon · covert	45.9%	$2.67 5.34 coins	0.8%	72	82.6	0.87×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Butterfly Knife | Autotronic (Factory New)knife · covert knife$178356 coins$1,7503,500 coins9.83x2d

★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B · Ruby$178356 coins$1,5433,086 coins8.66x2d

★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B · Ruby$178356 coins$1,5433,086 coins8.66x3d

★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$178356 coins$1,1292,258 coins6.34x2d

★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$178356 coins$1,0802,161 coins6.07x2d

★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$178356 coins$1,0802,161 coins6.07x3d

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B · Phase 1$178356 coins$1,0352,071 coins5.81x2d

★ Huntsman Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covertnatasja$178356 coins$9491,897 coins5.33x2d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New)weapon · covert$178356 coins$2.675.34 coins0.01x2d

★ Butterfly Knife | Autotronic (Factory New)knife · covert knife$178356 coins$1,7503,500 coins9.83x2d

★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · Covert · Ruby$178356 coins$6071,215 coins3.41x2d

MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New)weapon · covert$178356 coins$2.675.34 coins0.01x2d

MAC-10 | Propaganda (Factory New)weapon · classified$178356 coins$27.8155.62 coins0.16x2d

AUG | Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · mil specnatasja$178356 coins$290579 coins1.63x2d

★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$178356 coins$1,0802,161 coins6.07x2d

★ Ursus Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$178356 coins$253506 coins1.42x2d

MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New)weapon · covert$178356 coins$2.675.34 coins0.01x2d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$178	90.00%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcontraband 0.0%high 0.1%covert knife 0.5%#EB4B4B 2.3%covert 70.9%extraordinary 1.3%Covert 2.5%epic 2.5%mil spec 5.0%classified 15.0%best hit $1,750 (9.83x)