Rebel
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$6.23
12.46 coins
Advertised RTP
90.01%
EV $5.61 from 16 items
Observed RTP, 30d
100.16%
2,156 openings, odds method
Variance
15.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 17
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
64.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,156 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$6.2312.46 coins$8181,635 coins131.2x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Jaguar (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covertEliteLynx4233$6.2312.46 coins$387775 coins62.19x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.01%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $6.23 | 90.01% | 16 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 1.8%mil spec 0.2%Ancient 1.0%classified 3.0%restricted 20.0%Mythical 24.0%industrial 14.0%Rare 36.0%best hit $818 (131.2x)