Recovery
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$0.03
0.06 coins
Advertised RTP
76.97%
EV $0.02 from 3 items
Observed RTP, 30d
68.04%
8,917 openings, odds method
Variance
2623.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 10,000
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
100.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 8,917 openings and 0.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values3 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8,917 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · Covert | 1 in 10,000 | $137 275 coins | 59.5% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| ★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New)knife · Covert | 1 in 25,000 | $109 217 coins | 18.8% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| SG 553 | Aloha (Field-Tested)weapon · blue | 100.0% | <$0.01 0.01 coins | 21.7% | 8,916 | 8915.8 | 1.00× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 76.97%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.03 | 76.97% | 3 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedCovert 0.0%blue 100.0%best hit —