Red room
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$31.81
63.61 coins
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $28.62 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
79.64%
3,714 openings, odds method
Variance
57.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 250
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
97.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,714 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Karambit | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 500 | $4,209 8,418 coins | 29.4% | 4 | 7.4 | 0.54× |
| Sticker | Reason Gaming | Katowice 2014sticker · high | 1 in 500 | $3,097 6,194 coins | 21.6% | 8 | 7.4 | 1.08× |
| Souvenir M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Covert | 1 in 100 | $501 1,002 coins | 17.5% | 42 | 37.1 | 1.13× |
| ★ Nomad Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 83 | $404 808 coins | 16.9% | 40 | 44.6 | 0.90× |
| AK-47 | Point Disarray (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $16.67 33.34 coins | 2.9% | 189 | 185.7 | 1.02× |
| XM1014 | Tranquility (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $15.21 30.42 coins | 2.7% | 172 | 185.7 | 0.93× |
| SSG 08 | Turbo Peek (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 13 | $10.25 20.5 coins | 2.9% | 292 | 297.1 | 0.98× |
| P250 | Muertos (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 23.4% | $3.21 6.41 coins | 2.6% | 886 | 869.1 | 1.02× |
| Dual Berettas | Panther (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 28.0% | $2.01 4.02 coins | 2.0% | 1,017 | 1039.9 | 0.98× |
| XM1014 | Seasons (Factory New)weapon · Mythical | 28.0% | $1.52 3.04 coins | 1.5% | 1,064 | 1039.9 | 1.02× |
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $31.81 | 89.99% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 1.4%high 0.2%Covert 1.0%classified 41.4%mil spec 28.0%Mythical 28.0%best hit $4,209 (132.3x)